I think the timing is fine, the arrows on the belt cylinder match.
I cleaned out the areas you told me, ijk, and changed out the needle. Problem solved, thanks so much!
Also thanks TomG for the tips about the thread and when to lift the foot.
I've only had this machine for 5 or so months and I'm still learning new things about it all the time. Before this I'd only had experience with a cheap brothers home machine.
Thanks again for all the help!